As I said, I was using the thread as a scratch-pad for much of the time. And a very useful process it was.
The first completely uninterrupted run at this has been a complete success. The battery was already down to 83% when the export started at 9.45. Given the very useful observation that it discharges at 10% every 15 minutes, that gave an estimate of 13% at 11.30. In fact it was at 12%, so it was pretty close. (I suppose the speed of discharge might vary with temperature though.)
The battery went right down to 4% this time, getting there about 11.38, and stopped dischaging. The grid took over powering the house, at 7p/unit. As I type the battery is sitting idle at 4%, the house is running off the grid, and I could turn on the dishwasher at 7p/unit if I wanted to. The battery will start to recharge at midnight, having been at its lowest permitted state of charge for only about 22 minutes.
This was a good test, because this evening was pretty wintry. The central heating was on, and that bumps the house load up a bit - when the freezer does one of its half-hourly sessions, it gets nearly to 500 watts. The rest of the time it's more like 200-250 watts though. I also had a cooked evening meal, although I only used the microwave and the kettle, and that took something out of the battery after dusk. So 9.45 was OK with just over five minutes to spare under these circumstances, which are about as bad as it's likely to get for a couple of weeks I think. If it takes another 20 minutes for the battery to discharge completely on a nice evening when the central heating isn't on and there's no cooking happening, then it will still work. I just have to wait these extra 20 minutes to turn on the washing machine. If I'm feeling cheapskate.
I just have to post these two graphs, of two consecutive days. First yesterday, sun splitting the sky, made £6.67 from export and used only £1 worth of mains electricity.
The odd camel's hump pattern in the early hours is the dishwasher running at the same time as the battery was recharging. Then an hour or so after the battery reached 100%, the Eddi got up to temperature just before the off-peak rate ended. The battery ran the house until sunrise, then grabbed the first of the solar excess to recharge. Almost perfect Ayres Rock formation all day, with a few clouds passing and a kettle boiling spoiling the line a little. The central heating wasn't on, I didn't cook, and then I went out. It was 8.35 before the battery dropped below 100% and it was still at 96% when the export started. The double export peak is just because I realised there was no point in reserving any of the battery as the house wasn't going to get it. It was at 11% at 11.30 and bottomed out at 5% at 11.50 (delayed because of the delay in exporting the last 5%). As it happens, a 9.30 start was perfect for this summery day.
Now look at today. Note that the scale is actually
wider than the previous graph, but the solar still looks like it's hardly there.
Battery charged between midnight and 3.30 am, no dishwasher this time. Eddi heated the water from 4.30 am till it was at temperature. Oddly enough the battery didn't seem to have to work so hard to power the house from 5.30 am till sunrise, only dropping to 98% from 7.40 till 8.15. Don't quite know how that happened. Then absolutely pathetic solar, with the battery being called on several times to supplement it, then recharging when it got slightly brighter. Turned on the central heating just after 1 pm, you can see the base load increase. The battery had already started to drop below 100% by six, when the cooking dropped it even more, and as I said it was already down to 83% when the export started. You can see the central heating go off at 11.30, just before the house starts to draw on the grid.
So a 9.30 start is good on a bright day, but a 9.45 start is good on a dull day. That confirms 9.45 as the starting time, because it's better to run a bit into off-peak time before finishing the discharge, than to get there early and draw on peak-rate electricity. Also, dusk will get earlier as the month goes on. I'll leave it all as it is and see what happens over the next few days.
Now it's twenty past midnight, the battery is already at 16%, and I'm going to bed.